Premature deaths due to exposure to PM2.5 in Belgrade before and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Prolonged breathing in unhealthy levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) often leads to respiratory and
cardiovascular diseases and increases mortality. A statistical analysis of PM2.5 concentrations per hour was performed from April
28 to May 28, from 2018 to 2020, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the first few months after. Quantification of
the health effects of exposure to air pollution was done through calculations of attributed deaths in 2018 and 2019 using the
AirK + impact assessment for PM2.5 in Old and New Belgrade. It was found that the in 2020 the maximum concentrations of
PM2.5 concentrations decreased compared to 2019, most likely as a result of quarantine measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimated number of attributed cases in 2019, compared to 2018, a larger decrease was recorded in the Old Town than in New Belgrade. The increase in the number of attributed cases is a consequence of the faster development of New Belgrade in relation to Old Belgrade, as well as the increasing intensity of traffic in that part of the city. A progressive reduction in PM2.5
concentrations would bring major health benefits from improved air quality in Belgrade.